West Asia war overshadows state election campaigning in India

As the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gears up for a series of elections in four states and one Union Territory between April 9 and 29, the ongoing war in West Asia and the devastating blows suffered by Israel have cast a shadow over its campaigning efforts. The conflict, thousands of kilometers away, has deprived the BJP of the media attention it once enjoyed during election campaigns since 2014. The party's electioneering is struggling to gain momentum, particularly after its bid to bring about regime change in Iran on February 28.

The BJP, which is relatively weak in four out of five assemblies (except in Assam), is finding it challenging to polarize society to the same extent as in previous elections, especially in West Bengal, which goes to the polls on April 23 and 29, and Assam on April 9. The party has been unable to make Bangladeshi "infiltrators" a significant issue, as it used to do until February last year.

The war in West Asia has brought about a range of woes for India, as lakhs of Indians have quietly returned to their native places from Gulf countries, Israel, and even within India. The fear of job losses and the slowing economy has begun to haunt the Narendra Modi government. The oil and gas crises, coupled with rising prices and concerns over shortages and hoarding of essential items, have created uncertainty across the country.

In this context, India's decision to come to the rescue of Bangladesh by supplying 5,000 metric tons of diesel to Dhaka from its refinery in Assam presents a significant challenge for the BJP. It will be difficult for the party to whip up anti-Tarique Rahman government hysteria to politically capitalize on the elections in these two eastern states. Unlike the 2021 Assembly election campaign, there is no scope for a political pilgrimage to Bangladesh, where Modi visited on March 26-27, just before the elections.

The ongoing conflict in West Asia has disrupted the BJP's campaign strategy, making it harder for the party to mobilize support in the upcoming elections. The economic uncertainties and the return of Indians from Gulf countries and Israel have added to the challenges facing the Modi government. As the party struggles to regain its footing, the focus on domestic issues and the need to address the concerns of the electorate have become paramount. The BJP's ability to adapt its campaign strategy in the face of these challenges will be crucial in determining the outcome of the elections in these four states and one Union Territory.