The Twenty-Four Two Podcast: “Trump hasn't been the boon to Orbán that many expected”
This week's guest is Zselyke Csaky from the Centre for European Reform in Brussels - author of a recent report on the election. We discuss how Magyar’s foreign policy would differ from Orbán’s, whether Magyar could form an eastern counterweight to the EU’s Franco-German axis, his chances of getting his hands on €18 billion of suspended EU funds for Hungary, and Donald Trump’s failure to provide meaningful support to Orbán. “Trump hasn’t been the boon to Orban that many expected,” says Csaky. “Certainly he has received support rhetorically, and perhaps - although, at this point, it seems unlikely - Trump will visit Hungary before the vote. But, for Hungary itself, Trump hasn’t been that much of a success story - with the trade tariffs, with the uncertainty economically”. Most EU countries and its Brussels institutions would welcome a change of government in April, she says, but “at the same time, I think there are expectations among some in Brussels that may be unrealistic. One expectation is that once Orbán is gone, everything will be fine. I would just like to dispel that myth, because it’s easy to point to Orbán as the person who blocks everything in Brussels right now. But we know that, behind him, there are other member states who like to hide, depending on interest. If Orbán is gone, these disagreements might come out into the open”. Zselyke Csaky View multimedia 08 February 2026
In the latest episode of the Twenty-Four Two Podcast, host Zselyke Csaky from the Centre for European Reform in Brussels, who recently authored a report on Hungary's upcoming election, discusses the potential implications of a change in government. The conversation delves into how Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's foreign policy might differ from that of his potential successor, Péter Márki-Zay, known as Magyar. The episode also explores whether Magyar could establish an eastern counterweight to the EU's traditional Franco-German axis and his chances of securing the €18 billion in suspended EU funds for Hungary.
One of the key themes of the discussion is the impact of former US President Donald Trump on Hungary's political landscape. Csaky highlights that Trump has not been the boon to Orbán that many had anticipated. While Orbán has received rhetorical support from Trump, and there is a possibility—albeit unlikely at this stage—that Trump might visit Hungary before the April election, the overall impact of Trump's administration on Hungary has been less than beneficial. The trade tariffs and economic uncertainty introduced during Trump's tenure have left Hungary questioning the value of this relationship.
Csaky also addresses the expectations of the European Union (EU) and its institutions regarding the upcoming election. Most EU countries and Brussels institutions would welcome a change in government in April, she states. However, she cautions against unrealistic expectations that the departure of Orbán would automatically resolve all issues within the EU. She emphasizes that pointing to Orbán as the sole obstacle to progress in Brussels is a myth. Behind Orbán, there are other member states that often hide their disagreements, driven by self-interest. If Orbán were to step down, these underlying tensions might become more apparent, rather than disappearing.
The podcast further examines the potential foreign policy shifts under a Magyar administration. If elected, Magyar's approach to international relations could diverge significantly from Orbán's, potentially altering Hungary's role within the EU. The question of whether Magyar could form an eastern counterweight to the Franco-German axis is raised, with implications for the balance of power within the EU. Additionally, the prospects of Magyar securing the €18 billion in frozen EU funds are discussed, as this would be a significant challenge for any new government.
In conclusion, the Twenty-Four Two Podcast provides a nuanced analysis of Hungary's political situation, highlighting the complexities of Orbán's relationship with Trump and the unrealistic expectations surrounding a potential change in government. The episode underscores the need for a more nuanced understanding of the EU's internal dynamics and the challenges that any new Hungarian administration would face in navigating these complexities.
