The New Trade Map: Why Canadian Seed Companies Should Rethink “the Global Marketplace”

In a world where politics increasingly dictates market access, Canadian seed companies must rethink their reliance on the global marketplace. This is the central message from Jacob Shapiro, director of research at The Bespoke Group, who spoke at the recent CropConnect Conference in Winnipeg. Shapiro warned that the comfortable narrative of cyclical agricultural pain is not accurate; instead, the world is undergoing a fundamental reordering of global agricultural trade, the first in nearly a century.

For Canada's seed and crop ecosystem—comprising breeders, input providers, exporters, crushers, and the canola complex—this shift means that the old strategy of growing more, exporting more, and trusting the global market to clear surplus is colliding with a reality where countries prioritize feeding themselves first. Shapiro emphasized that this collision is about to become increasingly political.

The world is transitioning from a single, rules-based marketplace to a multipolar era, characterized by rival spheres where market access can expand or vanish based on political decisions. Shapiro urged the industry to stop viewing trade as an undifferentiated global marketplace where everyone sends products out and shares in mutual prosperity. Instead, he stressed the importance of recognizing how governments are increasingly privileging and impacting trade in meaningful ways.

This shift is particularly significant for Canada due to its concentration risk, especially in the canola sector. While Canada's export values have risen, its market share has slipped, moving from a position of dominating global demand to one of facing more competitive and politically influenced markets. Shapiro's advice to Canadian seed companies is threefold: diversify beyond China, treat food like energy, and build demand at home.

Diversifying beyond China is crucial, as the world's largest market has become more self-sufficient and less reliant on imports. Canadian companies must explore alternative markets, such as those in South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, where growing populations and changing agricultural policies present new opportunities.

Treating food like energy reflects the need for Canadian companies to prioritize food security and stability, similar to how energy companies manage supply chains. This approach involves focusing on long-term relationships with farmers, ensuring consistent product quality, and investing in research and development to create resilient crop varieties.

Finally, building demand at home is essential. Shapiro argues that Canada should prioritize domestic consumption and processing, reducing reliance on global markets. This can be achieved by promoting local food systems, investing in infrastructure, and supporting value-added industries.

In conclusion, the new trade map demands that Canadian seed companies adapt to a multipolar world where politics, not just prices, dictate market access. By diversifying, treating food like energy, and building domestic demand, these companies can navigate the shifting landscape and secure their future in a rapidly changing global agricultural landscape.