The Future of Produce Starts with Seed Decisions

The Future of Produce Starts with Seed Decisions

The pressure building across the produce system isn’t starting in the field anymore. It’s starting earlier — at the level of genetics, trait selection, and what the seed industry decides to prioritize next. Consumer expectations are shifting. Retail is consolidating and moving faster. Growers are absorbing rising costs, climate volatility, and labor shortages. Each force originates in a different part of the value chain, but all of them are pushing upstream. Toward seed.

At the American Seed Trade Association (ASTA) Vegetable and Flower Conference in San Diego, a panel featuring Randy Riley of Golden Sun Insights, Alicia Rihn of the University of Tennessee, and Jeana Cadby of Western Growers made one thing clear: the industry is no longer reacting to downstream signals. It’s being asked to anticipate them. And increasingly, the ability to do that begins before anything is planted.

The Consumer is Reshaping the Starting Point

Alicia Rihn, an agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee who studies consumer behavior in horticulture, says the pandemic didn’t just create a temporary surge in plant interest — it permanently altered who is participating in the market and why. “We had 16 to 18 million new people start gardening during the pandemic. That was a huge bump to our industry, and what’s notable is that a fair number of those people stayed engaged after that initial spike,” Rihn says.

The motivation behind those purchases looks different than it did even a decade ago. “The number one thing people told us was driving them to garden and interact with plants was mental health. The second was participating in a personal, enjoyable activity,” she says. “That tells you this isn’t only about aesthetics or production. It’s about how people feel.”

Those motivations are especially pronounced among younger consumers. “These are sticky trends, particularly among millennials and Gen Z, and those groups are our future buyers,” Rihn says. “They’re prioritizing wellness, sustainability, and connection to nature. These values are influencing the types of produce they seek, the quality they demand, and the way they expect to access it.”

Retail Consolidation and Faster Decision-Making

Meanwhile, retail consolidation is accelerating the pace at which the industry must adapt. Major retailers are demanding faster turnaround times, more consistent product quality, and a broader range of options to meet diverse consumer needs. This pressure is driving growers to seek out seed varieties that can meet these demands, from faster maturity rates to improved disease resistance.

The industry is also grappling with labor shortages, which are pushing growers to prioritize crops that require less manual labor. This has spurred interest in seed innovations that can enhance productivity and reduce the reliance on human labor.

Climate Volatility and Seed Development

Climate change is another critical factor reshaping the produce system. Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events are altering the regions where certain crops can be grown and the conditions under which they thrive.

Seed developers are now tasked with creating varieties that can withstand these challenges. This requires not only traditional breeding techniques but also advances in genetic engineering and biotechnology to create crops that are more resilient to climate stresses.

The Future of Seed Innovation

As these forces converge, the seed industry is becoming the linchpin of the produce system’s ability to adapt. Plant breeders and seed developers are under pressure to innovate and deliver new varieties that meet the evolving needs of consumers, retailers, and growers.

This shift is prompting a renewed focus on traditional plant breeding, as well as the exploration of new technologies like CRISPR gene editing. The goal is to create seed varieties that are not only more productive and resilient but also align with the changing preferences of consumers, from health-conscious options to heirloom varieties that evoke a sense of nostalgia.

In conclusion, the future of produce is being shaped by a complex interplay of factors, from consumer behavior to climate change. The seed industry now plays a critical role in guiding the industry’s adaptation to these challenges. By prioritizing innovation and collaboration, the seed industry can help ensure that the produce system remains resilient, sustainable, and responsive to the needs of its stakeholders.