The 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet
It’s my honor to announce that John Carmack and I have initiated a friendly bet of $10,000* to the 501(c)(3) charity of the winner’s choice: By January 1st, 2030, completely autonomous self-driving cars meeting SAE J3016 level 5 will be commercially available for
In a recent announcement, Elon Musk and John Carmack have initiated a friendly bet of $10,000 to be donated to a 501(c)(3) charity of the winner's choice. The bet revolves around the commercial availability of completely autonomous self-driving cars meeting SAE J3016 level 5 by January 1, 2030. Musk is betting against Carmack, who is betting for the success of autonomous vehicles.
The SAE J3016 level 5 definition of "completely autonomous" means that the vehicle must perform all driving tasks under all conditions, except in the case of natural disasters or emergencies. A human passenger would enter the vehicle, select a destination, and require no further attention or interaction during the journey. The bet specifically refers to major cities, defined as the top 10 most populous cities in the United States.
Musk has expressed his skepticism about the feasibility of achieving fully autonomous driving by 2030, stating that everyone is underestimating the difficulty of the task. However, he emphasizes that this does not mean he is against self-driving vehicles in any way. In fact, he views them as a fascinating and challenging computer science problem. Musk hopes that others will prove him wrong and achieve this milestone by 2030.
Carmack, on the other hand, is optimistic about the potential of autonomous vehicles and has suggested the friendly wager as a fun way to generate STEM publicity. He remains one of Musk's biggest heroes, and the bet serves as a friendly competition between the two tech enthusiasts.
The bet also touches upon Musk's more pessimistic view of virtual reality (VR), which he believes will not revolutionize the world in their lifetimes. However, he remains hopeful about augmented reality (AR) and projection technologies, which he predicts will have a more significant impact sooner.
The $10,000 bet between Musk and Carmack not only highlights their differing opinions on the future of autonomous driving but also underscores the ongoing challenges and advancements in the field of artificial intelligence and computer science. Regardless of the outcome, the bet serves as a reminder of the importance of innovation and the pursuit of technological progress.
