Tamil Nadu and West Bengal Elections 2026: Anger, fractures and shifting loyalities
In 2021 DMK gave hundreds of promises, projected MK Stalin as a competent leader who is going to rescue the state from 10-year misrule of AIADMK and also projected the then Chief Minister Edapadi Palanisamy as a weak person who was a puppet in the hands of BJP. Added to that were emotive issues like NEET ban, failure to build even a brick at AIIMS Madurai, Sterlite shooting ordered by the then CM. Stalin was also seen as a coalition builder since he had built a rainbow coalition of secular parties like Congress, Communists, Dalit outfits & smaller sub regional players. The expectation was that DMK led alliance would crush the AIADMK led NDA and would easily go past the 200+ mark out of the 234 seats. But when the results came the difference between DMK & AIADMK was just 4% and the difference between the two alliances was only 5%. This was in spite of 10 years of AIADMK Government and absence of a charismatic leader like J. Jayalalithaa. In fact, EPS ensured that AIADMK got better numbers in 2021 than that of J. Jayalalithaa got in 2006 after her 5 years of rule. While AIADMK won 66 seats in 2021 the NDA won 75 seats. In 2006 AIADMK could win 61 seats and the alliance won 69 seats. EPS gained credibility amongst his partymen based on that performance and that is the reason why when O. Paneerselvam the former Chief Minister revolted most of the district secretaries choose
In the lead-up to the 2026 elections in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, the political landscape is marked by simmering tensions, fractured alliances, and shifting loyalties. The 2021 elections in Tamil Nadu saw a fierce battle between the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), with the DMK-led alliance promising a fresh start after years of AIADMK rule. The DMK projected M. K. Stalin as a competent leader capable of rescuing the state from the 10-year misrule of AIADMK, while portraying the then Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palanisamy of AIADMK as a weak figure manipulated by the BJP.
The campaign was further fueled by emotive issues such as the NEET ban, the failure to initiate construction at the AIIMS Madurai, and the Sterlite shooting ordered by the then Chief Minister. Additionally, Stalin was seen as a coalition builder, having successfully formed a rainbow coalition of secular parties, including the Congress, Communists, Dalit outfits, and smaller sub-regional players. The expectation was that the DMK-led alliance would decisively defeat the AIADMK-led NDA, easily crossing the 200-mark out of the 234 seats.
However, the results told a different story. The difference between the DMK and AIADMK was a mere 4%, and the two alliances were separated by just 5%. This was despite the 10 years of AIADMK rule and the absence of a charismatic leader like J. Jayalalithaa, who had previously led the party to victory. Intriguingly, Edappadi K. Palanisamy's leadership ensured that AIADMK performed better in 2021 than it had under Jayalalithaa in 2006, after her five years in power. While AIADMK won 66 seats in 2021, the NDA secured 75 seats. In contrast, in 2006, AIADMK had won 61 seats, and the alliance had won 69 seats.
This performance bolstered the credibility of E. Palanisamy among his party members, which became crucial when O. Paneerselvam, the former Chief Minister, led a revolt. Most district secretaries chose to stay with E. Palanisamy, and he was appointed the party's General Secretary in 2022.
The last five years of DMK rule saw significant welfare measures, such as free bus rides for women, depositing Rs. 1,000 in the accounts of around 1.2 crore beneficiaries from September 2023 to January 2026, doorstep healthcare delivery, providing breakfast for school students, financial assistance of Rs. 1,000 for girl students, and skill development programs for youth. However, several promises made by the DMK, such as the ban on NEET exams and the reduction of VAT on petrol and kerosene, have yet to be fulfilled.
In West Bengal, the 2026 elections will be closely watched, given the state's strategic importance and the ongoing rivalry between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The TMC, led by Mamata Banerjee, has been in power since 2011, but its popularity has waned in recent years due to issues such as the Teesta Barrage project, the Nandigram land acquisition scam, and allegations of corruption. The BJP, on the other hand, has been seeking to capitalize on these discontentments and make inroads into the state.
The elections in both Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are expected to be closely contested, with the outcome hinging on various factors, including the ability of leaders to address public grievances, the effectiveness of campaigning, and the dynamics of alliances. The fractures and shifting loyalties observed in the lead-up to these elections are likely to shape the political trajectory of these states in the years to come.
