Study Warns of Rising Heat Risks for Global Wheat Yields
New research from Rothamsted Research suggests heatwaves during wheat flowering may soon pose a bigger threat to yields than drought. Using climate projections and the Sirius wheat model, researchers found drought impacts at flowering may ease slightly, while heat stress damage rises sharply. By 2050, global yield losses linked to extreme heat at flowering could increase by about one-third, and by 2090 by over three-quartersтАФhighlighting the need for heat-tolerant varieties. The post Study Warns of Rising Heat Risks for Global Wheat Yields appeared first on Seed World .
As the climate shifts, farmers worldwide are confronting more frequent and severe weather extremes. Although drought has traditionally been viewed as the primary threat to wheat production, new research indicates that heatwaves during critical stages of the cropтАЩs development could soon present an even greater risk. Dr. Mikhail Semenov, Mathematical Modeller and Emeritus Fellow at Rothamsted Research, explained that flowering is one of the most sensitive stages in wheat development. ItтАЩs when the plant sets grain, which ultimately determines yield. Even a few days of very high temperatures or severe water stress at this stage can reduce grain numbers and significantly cut final harvests.
The researchers combined advanced climate projections with the Sirius wheat model to estimate how short, intense heatwaves and drought episodes during flowering could influence future wheat yields worldwide. The analysis points to a clear shift in risk. Today, drought during flowering typically causes greater yield losses than heat stress. In future projections, however, the overall global impact of drought at flowering is expected to ease slightly. Heat stress during flowering, by contrast, is projected to become significantly more damaging.
By 2050, global yield losses associated with extreme heat at flowering could increase by around one-third, and by 2090 they could rise by more than three-quarters. In short, while drought will remain an important constraint, extreme heat during flowering is set to become an increasingly serious challenge for wheat growers worldwide. Professor Malcolm Hawkesford, Leader of the тАЬDelivering Sustainable WheatтАЭ Institute Strategic Programme at Rothamsted Research, noted that such modelling studies provide critical information on, and pointers to, the traits we should be breeding for now, ready for predicted future climate conditions.
For farmers, this highlights the urgent need to adapt and invest in heat-tolerant wheat varieties. As the frequency and intensity of heatwaves rise, traditional crops may struggle to maintain productivity. Breeding programs focused on heat resilience could help mitigate these risks and ensure food security in the face of a changing climate. Additionally, farmers may need to adjust their agricultural practices, such as planting schedules or irrigation strategies, to better manage the impacts of extreme heat during flowering.
The study underscores the importance of proactive measures in the agricultural sector to prepare for the challenges posed by climate change. While drought remains a concern, the rising threat of heat stress during wheat flowering cannot be ignored. By prioritizing research and development of heat-resistant crops, policymakers and farmers can work together to safeguard global wheat yields and ensure a stable food supply for the future.
