Stock Market 90–95% Done With War-Related Sell-Offs, Says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee – Here’s His Forecast
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee thinks historical precedent indicates April could be a strong month for stocks. In a new interview on CNBC, Lee estimates that 90-95% of the market’s Iran war-related sell-offs are already in the past. “As March unfolded, the war looked like not to be a short war, but one that was longer, and […] The post Stock Market 90–95% Done With War-Related Sell-Offs, Says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee – Here’s His Forecast appeared first on The Daily Hodl .
Fundstrat's Tom Lee believes that the stock market has already absorbed the majority of its war-related sell-offs, with 90-95% of the impact already felt. In a recent interview on CNBC, Lee drew on historical precedent to forecast that April could be a strong month for stocks.
As March progressed, the situation in the Middle East escalated, leading to concerns that the conflict might be a prolonged one. Markets have been adjusting to this uncertainty, Lee explained. However, despite the ongoing fog of war, which stems from the unknown duration of the conflict, Lee pointed out that stock markets typically adjust quickly. By examining the past seven major war events, Lee found that the market usually bottoms out within the first 10% of the total war duration.
Lee used World War II as a key historical reference. The war lasted almost five years, and the market bottomed just five months into the conflict. This historical pattern suggests that, despite the challenging conditions in March, a significant portion of the adjustment has already occurred. Lee is now optimistic about the risk-reward profile for stocks, indicating that the worst of the war-related sell-offs may be behind us.
Despite the rocky start to 2026, Lee remains bullish on the S&P 500, predicting that it will reach 7,700 by the end of the year. Currently priced at 6,604.85, the leading index has shown some resilience in recent days, rising 3.15% over the past five days. However, it has dropped 3.82% year-to-date.
Lee's analysis offers a glimmer of hope for investors weary from the market's volatility. While the geopolitical situation remains uncertain, the historical data suggests that the worst of the sell-offs may be over. This could pave the way for a rebound in April, as markets adjust to the new reality of the conflict.
Investors should remain cautious, as the situation is far from resolved. However, Lee's forecast provides a potential roadmap for the coming months. As the market continues to navigate the uncertainties of the conflict, the risk-reward balance may shift in favor of stocks, offering opportunities for growth.
Ultimately, Lee's perspective underscores the importance of historical context in understanding market behavior. While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, it can offer valuable insights into how markets might react to current events. As the world watches the unfolding situation, investors will need to balance caution with optimism, ready to seize opportunities as they emerge.
