‘Slightly less focus’ on war/risk premiums in grain markets this week

The Irish Farmers’ Association (IFA) has recently published a grain market update, offering insights into national and international cereal prices amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. While the conflict has undeniably caused volatility in the markets, the IFA notes that fundamental factors are beginning to regain control, with a slightly less focus on the war/risk premium this week. Analysts from Argus Media have contributed to this assessment.

Last week, Matif futures for May-26 experienced volatility throughout the week but closed unchanged at €203.25/t on Friday, March 27. In contrast, CBOT wheat futures for May-26 saw an increase of $3.58/t during the same period. This week, prices have declined by approximately €2-€3/t for MATIF spot and new crop futures. Native prices, however, remain unchanged.

For green grain, Tirlan offered €185/t for feed barley and €190/t for feed wheat on April 1st. In the malting barley market, Boortmalt has introduced a second fix price of €225/t for merchants within its supply chain network. Dried grain prices have seen slight fluctuations, with native prices for wheat Nov-26 reaching up to €230/t. Imported maize, on the other hand, has risen to the €235-€240/t range. Spot wheat prices are trading in the €220-€225/t range, depending on the day.

Oilseed rape prices have remained firm due to volatility in crude oil and factors within the wider oilseed complex. Paris rapeseed futures for new crop Aug/Nov-26 contracts crossed the €500/t symbolic zone earlier this week, settling at €509/t on Tuesday evening before closing at €500/t on Wednesday evening. Tirlan offered €465/t for oilseed rape on Wednesday, April 1st.

Looking at the global grain supply and demand, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its prospective plantings report on March 31. The report outlines area estimates for key crops such as maize, soybeans, and wheat. Maize is estimated at 95.338 million acres, which is 3.5 million acres lower than the 2025 record crop. This decline was lower than what trade analysts had forecasted. Soybeans are projected at 84.7 million acres, with wheat estimates remaining unspecified in the provided information.

In summary, while the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to impact grain markets, the IFA's latest update suggests that fundamental factors are gradually reasserting their influence. Prices for various grains have shown fluctuations, with some declines and others remaining stable or increasing. The USDA's recent report on prospective plantings offers insights into global supply expectations, which will undoubtedly play a role in shaping future market dynamics.