Russia’s friends are a motley—and shrinking—crew

Russia’s friends are a coalition of the failing, the Soviet Remembrance Society, and a gang of opportunists, a group that has been shrinking in recent years. Once a formidable alliance, these nations and figures have been increasingly marginalized on the global stage, their influence waning as they struggle with internal challenges and external pressures.

The coalition of the failing consists of countries that have found themselves in economic, political, or social turmoil, often seeking support from Russia in exchange for alliances. These nations, including Syria, North Korea, and Zimbabwe, have been drawn to Russia due to its perceived willingness to overlook their human rights abuses and economic shortcomings. However, this alliance is not without its costs. As these countries struggle to reform or stabilize, their reliance on Russia becomes a double-edged sword, limiting their ability to engage with other global powers and isolating them further.

The Soviet Remembrance Society represents a different kind of ally for Russia. Comprised of nations that were once part of the Soviet Union or have a strong historical connection to it, this group includes Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Armenia. These countries share a complex relationship with Russia, marked by a mix of nostalgia for the Soviet era and a desire for greater independence. While they remain economically and militarily tied to Russia, their loyalty is often conditional, influenced by Russia’s own actions and the evolving geopolitical landscape. The Soviet Remembrance Society serves as a buffer for Russia, providing a stable base of support in a region that has become increasingly unpredictable.

The gang of opportunists, meanwhile, is a more transient group of individuals and organizations that exploit Russia’s influence for their own purposes. These opportunists range from corrupt politicians seeking to leverage Russia’s power to gain advantages for their own countries, to private individuals and businesses profiting from lucrative deals with Russian entities. While they may not share a common ideology or long-term vision, their shared interest in exploiting Russia’s connections often leads them to collaborate, albeit temporarily.

The shrinking nature of Russia’s alliances is a reflection of both global shifts and Russia’s own actions. As the international community imposes sanctions and isolates Russia over its actions in Ukraine and elsewhere, many of its traditional allies have been forced to reassess their relationships with Moscow. Some, like Hungary and Serbia, have chosen to maintain close ties with Russia despite the costs, driven by a mix of political pragmatism and ideological alignment. Others, such as China, have distanced themselves from Russia’s actions, focusing instead on their own strategic interests.

In addition to external pressures, Russia’s alliances have been strained by its own policies. Its aggressive foreign policy, economic mismanagement, and authoritarian governance have made it increasingly difficult for other nations to justify maintaining close ties with Moscow. As a result, many of Russia’s traditional allies have become more cautious, hedging their bets and seeking alternative partners to balance their relations with Russia.

The future of Russia’s alliances remains uncertain. While it is unlikely that Russia will lose all of its friends overnight, the continued erosion of its influence and the evolving global landscape suggest that its coalition will continue to shrink and become more fragmented. For Russia, the challenge will be to rebuild and diversify its alliances, finding new partners and redefining its role in the world. For its allies, the task will be to navigate the complexities of maintaining relationships with a power that is increasingly isolated and unpredictable.