OpenAI doesn’t expect to be profitable until at least 2030 as AI costs surge
As OpenAI and Anthropic move closer to their planned initial public offerings, more details about the finances of both artificial intelligence giants are starting to emerge. It was no secret these companies were bleeding cash, but seeing the actual numbers is still striking. Neither company has made its filings official. Both are in the process of recruiting investors and have recently closed funding rounds, which meant opening their books. The Wall Street Journal got a peek . According to internal estimates, OpenAI will not turn a profit until 2030, while Anthropic expects slight positive results this year, followed by another year of losses before staying in the green in 2028 and 2029. Spending on AI training will be staggering. In 2028, OpenAI projects spending $121 billion on computing power for its AI research. The estimate for 2029 is slightly higher, before AI model training costs dip back below $100 million in 2030. (This year, for perspective, the company expects to spend just over $25 billion on AI model training.) Anthropic’s totals are smaller but still climb steadily, surpassing $30 billion in 2029. These losses come despite an expected surge in revenue at both companies. OpenAI’s revenue is projected to nearly double annually, reaching roughly $275 billion in 2030. Anthropic expects to approach $150 billion in 2029. Anthropic’s projections include sales through cloud partners, something OpenAI does not emphasize to the same extent. As a result, Anthropic expects most of its income to come from enterprise customers. That channel is also
As OpenAI and Anthropic move closer to their planned initial public offerings, more details about the finances of both artificial intelligence giants are starting to emerge. It was no secret these companies were bleeding cash, but seeing the actual numbers is still striking. Neither company has made its filings official. Both are in the process of recruiting investors and have recently closed funding rounds, which meant opening their books. The Wall Street Journal got a peek. According to internal estimates, OpenAI will not turn a profit until 2030, while Anthropic expects slight positive results this year, followed by another year of losses before staying in the green in 2028 and 2029.
Spending on AI training will be staggering. In 2028, OpenAI projects spending $121 billion on computing power for its AI research. The estimate for 2029 is slightly higher, before AI model training costs dip back below $100 million in 2030. (This year, for perspective, the company expects to spend just over $25 billion on AI model training.) Anthropic’s totals are smaller but still climb steadily, surpassing $30 billion in 2029.
These losses come despite an expected surge in revenue at both companies. OpenAI’s revenue is projected to nearly double annually, reaching roughly $275 billion in 2030. Anthropic expects to approach $150 billion in 2029. Anthropic’s projections include sales through cloud partners, something OpenAI does not emphasize to the same extent. As a result, Anthropic expects most of its income to come from enterprise customers. That channel is also key for OpenAI, but the company is betting heavily on consumer usage. It is still unclear how that revenue will break down between paid memberships, advertising, or other streams. (OpenAI projects roughly $150 billion in consumer revenue in 2030.)
For now, OpenAI is effectively subsidizing free users as it pushes adoption. While not stated explicitly, the strategy is clear: build habit now, convert later. Loyal users are more likely to upgrade to paid plans or engage with advertising opportunities. This approach has been successful for other subscription-based services, but the long-term viability of this model for AI remains uncertain.
The sheer scale of spending on AI training highlights the immense resources required to advance the field. OpenAI’s projected $121 billion in 2028 underscores the company’s ambition to continue scaling its models, while Anthropic’s $30 billion in 2029 suggests a more gradual but still significant investment. These costs are necessary to maintain a competitive edge and deliver cutting-edge AI solutions.
Despite the financial challenges, both companies are optimistic about their long-term prospects. OpenAI’s delayed profitability until 2030 reflects its aggressive growth strategy, while Anthropic’s earlier turnaround in 2028 signals a more balanced approach. The difference in revenue streams, with Anthropic relying more on enterprise sales and OpenAI on consumer adoption, may shape their paths to profitability.
The AI industry’s rapid evolution is driving these companies to invest heavily in research and development. As the demand for AI solutions grows, so too does the need for more powerful and efficient models. The surge in computing power expenditures is a testament to the industry’s progress and the challenges it faces.
In conclusion, OpenAI and Anthropic are both on a path to significant growth, but their journeys to profitability will be long and demanding. The staggering costs of AI training are a testament to the industry’s ambition and the hurdles it must overcome. As both companies navigate these financial challenges, the question remains: will the eventual profits justify the current sacrifices? Only time will tell, but one thing is clear – the race to harness the full potential of AI is far from over.
