OpenAI doesn’t expect to be profitable until at least 2030 as AI costs surge
As OpenAI and Anthropic move closer to their planned initial public offerings, more details about the finances of both artificial intelligence giants are starting to emerge. It was no secret these companies were bleeding cash, but seeing the actual numbers is still striking. Neither company has made its filings official. Both are in the process of recruiting investors and have recently closed funding rounds, which meant opening their books. The Wall Street Journal got a peek . According to internal estimates, OpenAI will not turn a profit until 2030, while Anthropic expects slight positive results this year, followed by another year of losses before staying in the green in 2028 and 2029. Spending on AI training will be staggering. In 2028, OpenAI projects spending $121 billion on computing power for its AI research. The estimate for 2029 is slightly higher, before AI model training costs dip back below $100 million in 2030. (This year, for perspective, the company expects to spend just over $25 billion on AI model training.) Anthropic’s totals are smaller but still climb steadily, surpassing $30 billion in 2029. These losses come despite an expected surge in revenue at both companies. OpenAI’s revenue is projected to nearly double annually, reaching roughly $275 billion in 2030. Anthropic expects to approach $150 billion in 2029. Anthropic’s projections include sales through cloud partners, something OpenAI does not emphasize to the same extent. As a result, Anthropic expects most of its income to come from enterprise customers. That channel is also
As OpenAI and Anthropic move closer to their planned initial public offerings, more details about the finances of both artificial intelligence giants are starting to emerge. It was no secret these companies were bleeding cash, but seeing the actual numbers is still striking. Neither company has made its filings official. Both are in the process of recruiting investors and have recently closed funding rounds, which meant opening their books. The Wall Street Journal got a peek into these internal estimates, revealing the extent of the challenges both companies face in achieving profitability.
According to internal estimates, OpenAI will not turn a profit until 2030, while Anthropic expects slight positive results this year, followed by another year of losses before staying in the green in 2028 and 2029. These projections highlight the significant financial hurdles both companies must overcome, particularly in the context of their rapid growth and ambitious AI research agendas.
Spending on AI training will be staggering for both companies. In 2028, OpenAI projects spending $121 billion on computing power for its AI research. The estimate for 2029 is slightly higher, before AI model training costs dip back below $100 million in 2030. For perspective, the company expects to spend just over $25 billion on AI model training this year. Anthropic’s totals are smaller but still climb steadily, surpassing $30 billion in 2029. These massive expenditures underscore the immense resources required to advance AI capabilities and maintain a competitive edge in the industry.
Despite these substantial losses, both companies are projected to experience a surge in revenue. OpenAI’s revenue is expected to nearly double annually, reaching roughly $275 billion in 2030. Anthropic expects to approach $150 billion in 2029. The revenue growth is driven by a combination of factors, including expanding customer bases and increasing adoption of AI solutions across various industries.
Anthropic’s projections include sales through cloud partners, something OpenAI does not emphasize to the same extent. As a result, Anthropic expects most of its income to come from enterprise customers. This channel is also key for OpenAI, but the company is betting heavily on consumer usage. It is still unclear how that revenue will break down between paid memberships, advertising, or other streams. OpenAI projects roughly $150 billion in consumer revenue in 2030. For now, OpenAI is effectively subsidizing free users as it pushes adoption. While not stated explicitly, the strategy is clear: build habit now, convert later. Loyal users are more likely to transition to paid plans or other revenue-generating opportunities in the future.
The long timelines for profitability at both companies highlight the challenges of scaling AI research while managing financial sustainability. As AI continues to evolve and become more integral to various sectors, the pressure on these companies to balance innovation with profitability will only intensify. The road to profitability for OpenAI and Anthropic is a long and steep one, but the potential rewards—in terms of technological advancement and market leadership—are significant. As both companies navigate this complex landscape, the broader AI ecosystem will be closely watching their progress, eager to see how these giants will shape the future of artificial intelligence.
