Labor Automation Tournament — $35,000 in prizes, hub launching April 20
How will AI reshape the future of work, and how fast will those changes arrive? These are genuinely hard forecasting problems with high stakes for workers, employers, educators, and policymakers. There's surprisingly little consensus on what to expect, even among people who study this closely. Metaculus has launched the Labor Automation Tournament to try to build a clearer picture. What it is 93 questions covering occupation-level employment shifts, wage trajectories, AI adoption rates, workforce education trends, and macro labor market indicators. A few examples of what's in the set: What will the percent change in people employed as software developers in the US be by 2030 and 2035? What will the unemployment rate be among new graduates in 2027, 2030, and 2035? What percent of US workers will use AI daily in 2030 and 2035? What will the labor share of national income be in the US by 2030 and 2035? What will the percent change in people employed as registered nurses be relative to 2025? Questions close across two horizons: near-term (by end of 2030) and longer-term (through 2035). Aggregate forecasts will be published on the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub , launching April 20 as a public resource for tracking how community and expert predictions on AI and work evolve over time. Prizes $35,000 across three pools: Commenting Prize ($5,000): distributed across the top eight contributors based on quality and quantity of comments posted before September 1, 2026, awarded by November 2026 Near-Term Forecasting Prize ($10,000): for questions closing
In an effort to better understand the impact of AI on the labor market and the future of work, Metaculus has launched the Labor Automation Tournament. This initiative aims to gather insights and forecasts on various aspects of workforce changes, including occupation-level employment shifts, wage trajectories, AI adoption rates, workforce education trends, and macro labor market indicators. The tournament, which includes 93 questions, will help build a clearer picture of how AI will reshape the labor landscape and at what pace these changes will occur.
The Labor Automation Tournament covers a wide range of topics, from the percent change in employment for specific occupations, such as software developers and registered nurses, to the unemployment rate among new graduates and the labor share of national income. The questions are divided into two horizons: near-term (by the end of 2030) and longer-term (through 2035). This dual approach allows participants to provide forecasts for both immediate and future labor market scenarios.
Aggregate forecasts will be published on the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub, which is set to launch on April 20. This public resource will enable users to track how community and expert predictions on AI and work evolve over time. The hub will serve as a valuable tool for policymakers, educators, employers, and workers to stay informed about the potential implications of AI on the labor market.
To incentivize participation and encourage high-quality contributions, Metaculus is offering a total of $35,000 in prizes across three pools. The Commenting Prize, worth $5,000, will be distributed among the top eight contributors based on the quality and quantity of comments posted before September 1, 2026. The winners will be announced in November 2026.
Additionally, there are two forecasting prizes: the Near-Term Forecasting Prize, worth $10,000, and the Long-Term Forecasting Prize, worth $20,000. The Near-Term Prize is for questions resolving by the end of 2030 and will be awarded in 2031. The Long-Term Prize is for questions resolving after 2031 and will be awarded in 2036.
Participants are encouraged to contribute and rank forecasts without needing to be "correct" in their predictions. Instead, the focus is on the quality of the reasoning provided. This approach allows for a more open and collaborative environment, where insights can be shared and discussed freely.
The Labor Automation Tournament invites individuals from various fields, such as labor economics, workforce policy, and AI, to participate and contribute their expertise. By gathering a diverse range of perspectives, the initiative aims to create a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities that AI will bring to the labor market in the coming years.
In conclusion, the Labor Automation Tournament represents an ambitious effort to forecast and understand the impact of AI on the future of work. With its comprehensive set of questions, public forecasting hub, and attractive prize pool, the tournament is poised to become a significant resource for those interested in the intersection of AI, labor, and policy. As the launch date approaches, participants from around the world are expected to engage in this collaborative effort to shape a clearer vision of the labor market's future.
