Four years, two fertiliser shocks – global conflicts hit Irish farmers

Ireland, an island accustomed to facing economic challenges, is once again grappling with the repercussions of global conflicts, this time through the lens of fertiliser prices and supply. The unrest in the Middle East has had a significant impact on Irish farmers' budgets and their plans to apply fertiliser this spring. The geopolitical tensions have led to a sharp increase in nitrogen (N) fertiliser prices across Ireland since the conflict began on February 28 of this year. A member of the Irish parliament (TD) highlighted the severity of the situation, noting a staggering 60% rise in input costs for farmers.

The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial transport route for global nitrogen fertiliser exports, plays a pivotal role in the current fertiliser crisis. Approximately 25-30% of global N fertiliser exports pass through this strategic waterway, which is nearly 7,000km away from Ireland. Despite the geographical distance, the potential closure of this route has had substantial effects on both the price and availability of chemical fertilisers in Ireland. The volatility in natural gas prices, which constitutes around 60% of the cost of producing N fertiliser, is the primary driver behind the recent spike in fertiliser costs. Rabobank reported that within the first 48 hours of the conflict starting, EU natural gas prices rose by 45%.

Ireland's reliance on Middle Eastern fertiliser imports is evident in the data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO). In 2025, the country imported 317,436 tonnes of fertiliser from the Middle East region. This situation mirrors the challenges faced by Irish farmers in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. At the time, gas and oil prices surged, leading to fertiliser prices increasing by more than 200%, according to Teagasc economists. The conflict caused an unprecedented impact on stock levels in co-ops across the country, with some co-ops temporarily halting all sales of fertiliser.

The CEO of the International Fertilizer Association, Alzbeta Klein, told Agriland that the current situation is different from the 2022 crisis, primarily due to the lack of obvious alternative routes that can quickly replace flows through the Strait of Hormuz. She noted that after the initial shock of the Russia-Ukraine disruption, fertiliser export volumes were able to shift via the Baltic Sea. However, the absence of such alternatives now poses a significant challenge for Irish farmers and the broader agricultural sector.

The impact of these fertiliser shocks extends beyond the immediate costs faced by farmers. Rising fertiliser prices contribute to higher food production costs, which can ultimately lead to increased food prices for consumers. This situation not only affects Irish farmers but also raises concerns about global food security, as the fertiliser crisis has the potential to ripple through international markets.

As Irish farmers navigate these challenging times, they are forced to adapt their practices and seek alternative sources of fertiliser to ensure the sustainability of their operations. The government and agricultural stakeholders are also working to find solutions, such as investing in research and development of more sustainable fertiliser production methods or exploring new import routes.

In the face of these global conflicts and their impact on fertiliser supply, Irish farmers are once again called upon to demonstrate resilience and adaptability. The challenges posed by these fertiliser shocks serve as a stark reminder of the interconnected nature of global economies and the need for continued collaboration and innovation within the agricultural sector.