Four years, two fertiliser shocks – global conflicts hit Irish farmers

Ireland, an island accustomed to facing economic challenges, is once again grappling with the repercussions of global conflicts, as the unrest in the Middle East has led to significant increases in fertiliser prices for Irish farmers. This latest geopolitical turmoil has disrupted farmers' plans to spread fertiliser this spring, causing concern and financial strain.

The conflict in the Middle East has had a direct impact on the cost of nitrogen (N) fertiliser across Ireland. Since the war began on February 28 this year, prices have risen sharply, with one TD highlighting a 60% increase in input costs. This situation is particularly concerning given that about 25-30% of global N fertiliser exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that is almost 7,000km away from Ireland. Despite the distance, the closure of this strategic transport route has had considerable effects on both the price and supply of chemical fertilisers in Ireland.

The primary driver behind the recent spike in fertiliser costs is the volatility in natural gas prices, which make up around 60% of the cost of producing N fertiliser. According to Rabobank, within the first 48 hours of the start of the war, EU natural gas prices rose by 45%. This dramatic increase in gas prices has had a ripple effect on fertiliser markets, causing prices to surge and making it more challenging for Irish farmers to manage their costs.

Ireland's reliance on Middle Eastern fertiliser imports is evident in the data obtained by Agriland from the Central Statistics Office (CSO). In 2025, Ireland imported 317,436 tonnes of fertiliser from the Middle East region. This level of dependency on a region prone to geopolitical conflicts highlights the vulnerability of Ireland's agricultural sector to global economic disruptions.

This is not the first time Irish farmers have faced fertiliser price shocks due to global conflicts. In March 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, gas and oil prices surged, leading to a more than 200% increase in fertiliser prices, as reported by Teagasc economists at the time. This conflict caused an unprecedented impact on stock levels in co-ops across the country, with some co-ops temporarily halting all sales of fertiliser.

The CEO of the International Fertilizer Association, Alzbeta Klein, told Agriland that the current situation is different from the 2022 crisis in that there are no obvious alternative routes that can quickly replace flows through the Strait of Hormuz. After the initial shock of the Russia-Ukraine disruption, fertiliser export volumes were able to shift via the Baltic Sea, she added.

The recent fertiliser price hikes are a stark reminder of the interconnected nature of global markets and the potential for geopolitical conflicts to have far-reaching effects on sectors like Irish agriculture. As farmers grapple with these challenges, the need for diversification and resilience in the supply chain becomes even more pressing. The agricultural community will need to adapt and find sustainable solutions to ensure the continued productivity of Irish farms in the face of ongoing global uncertainties.