? Exponential View #565: Autoresearch; the solar supercycle; an agentic nation; ChatGPT Olympian, seeing fraud & moving asteroids++

In the midst of a week marked by historic oil prices crossing the $100 per barrel threshold, triggering the largest oil shock in history, the Exponential View presented a radically optimistic analysis of the near future of energy. While the world may currently feel like the short-term is consuming the long-term, there are forces at play that no political decision can overshadow. One such force is the potential of solar power to unlock a cascade of civilizational problems that can be solved through cheap electricity.

Solar energy is known for its learning curves, which mean that as production scales, costs continue to decrease. In contrast, fossil fuels, despite their remarkable properties, face depletion curves that limit their long-term viability. The Exponential View argues that as solar energy becomes more affordable, it will unlock new markets and drive further cost reductions in a self-reinforcing loop, known as the solar supercycle.

To illustrate this potential, the team built a model grounded in fifty years of Wright's Law data, which maps out when each cost threshold will be reached and which markets will open up. Wright's Law, which states that the cost of solar electricity decreases by approximately 20% for every doubling of cumulative installed capacity, forms the basis of the model. This allows users to input their own assumptions—whether they are bearish, bullish, or somewhere in between—and see how the solar supercycle might unfold.

For paying members, the model has been available since Thursday, and now it has been opened to the public at solar.exponentialview.co. The baseline scenario presented in the model suggests that at a cost of three cents per kilowatt-hour, desalination will no longer be a luxury, and water scarcity will cease to be an insurmountable "law of nature." At a cost of one cent per kilowatt-hour, carbon capture will approach economic viability, and synthetic aviation fuel will begin to close the gap with traditional fossil jet fuel.

In addition to the solar supercycle, the Exponential View highlighted the rapid adoption of AI agents in China. Local governments in the country are competing to normalize the use of AI agents, with one example being the widespread installation of OpenClaw, a popular AI assistant. Last week, around 1,000 people lined up outside Tencent's headquarters to get OpenClaw installed, demonstrating the high demand for such technology.

The surge in interest led to paid installers appearing on Chinese consumer platforms, offering setup services for the free software. Furthermore, six major platforms pushed out hosted or one-click versions of OpenClaw within days of its release. Users from China now make up nearly 40% of the 200,000 publicly visible OpenClaw agents, indicating the rapid growth of AI agent adoption in the region.

As the Exponential View continues to provide insights into these transformative trends, it remains a valuable resource for those seeking to understand the interplay between technology, energy, and policy. With the solar supercycle and the rise of AI agents, the future looks poised for significant change, and the Exponential View is at the forefront of making sense of these developments.