? Exponential View #565: Autoresearch; the solar supercycle; an agentic nation; ChatGPT Olympian, seeing fraud & moving asteroids++

In the midst of a week marked by historic oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel, triggering the largest oil shock in history, the Exponential View presented a radically optimistic analysis of the near future of energy. While the world may currently feel like the short-term is consuming the long-term, there are forces at play that no political decision can overshadow. One such force is the potential of solar power to unlock a cascade of civilizational problems that can be solved through cheap electricity.

Solar energy is known for its learning curves, with costs decreasing as scale increases. In contrast, fossil fuels, despite their remarkable properties, face depletion curves. At a price of three cents per kilowatt-hour, desalination will no longer be a luxury, and water scarcity will cease to be an insurmountable "law of nature." At one cent per kilowatt-hour, carbon capture will approach economic viability, and synthetic aviation fuel will close the gap with its fossil counterpart. This is the solar supercycle, a self-reinforcing loop where every cost reduction opens new markets, and every new market funds the next cost reduction.

To illustrate this potential, the Exponential View built a model grounded in fifty years of Wright's Law data, mapping when each threshold is reached and which markets will open up. This model allows users to input their own assumptions—whether bearish, bullish, or somewhere in between. For paying members, the model has been available since Thursday, and today it is being made accessible to everyone on the website solar.exponentialview.co.

In addition to the solar supercycle, the week also saw the emergence of an agentic nation. Chinese local governments have been competing to normalize AI agent adoption, with OpenClaw, a popular AI assistant, becoming a focal point. Last week, around 1,000 people lined up outside Tencent's headquarters to get OpenClaw installed, highlighting the rapid growth of interest in AI agents. Paid installers quickly appeared on Chinese consumer platforms, charging for setup despite the software being free. Six major platforms pushed out hosted or one-click versions within days, further accelerating the adoption process.

The impact of this rapid adoption is evident in the user base, with users from China making up nearly 40% of the 200,000 publicly visible OpenClaw agents. The hottest Claw in China, for instance, has been generating significant buzz and participation. This trend not only underscores the potential of AI agents to transform various sectors but also highlights the role of China as a key player in shaping the future of technology and innovation.

As the world navigates the challenges posed by energy crises and the rapid pace of technological advancement, the solar supercycle and the rise of agentic nations serve as reminders of the transformative power of technology and the potential for positive change. The Exponential View's analysis and the open model provide valuable insights into the future of energy and AI, encouraging readers to consider their own assumptions and possibilities for a brighter, more sustainable future.