? Exponential View #564: Intelligence as a target; the future of knowledge; AI, productivity & economy; CO2 armor, ultra-violent ancestors & Brand Age++

In the latest installment of Exponential View #564, we delve into the rapidly evolving landscape of intelligence, knowledge, and technology. This edition explores the increasing focus on AI, productivity, and the economy, while also addressing the challenges posed by climate change and the complexities of human evolution.

The week's news was marked by three drone strikes targeting critical infrastructure in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Unlike traditional warfare targets such as shipping lanes, military bases, or power plants, these attacks were directed at 21st-century intelligence factories: three AWS data centers. This shift in targeting highlights the changing structure of vulnerability, as highlighted in the first book of the Exponential View series. The AI production line is highly concentrated, with a few dominant players controlling the majority of the market.

By our calculations, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for AI chips stands at 0.59, indicating a highly concentrated market. A value of 1.0 would represent a pure monopoly, while 0.25 would be considered a "highly concentrated market." This concentration has prompted the US to tighten its grip on the AI supply chain, with debates over imposing tiered oversight on large Nvidia clusters. The proposed measures include licenses for smaller deployments, government-to-government assurances for clusters up to about 100,000 chips, and potential on-site inspections for installations approaching roughly 200,000 chips.

Initially, these controls were aimed at curbing China's advancements in AI, but they could now become a general instrument of geopolitical leverage over multiple countries and firms. The effects of prior chip controls in China's AI ecosystem are already becoming apparent. Lin Junyang, the former technical lead of Alibaba's Qwen model, stated that China was "relatively strapped" for compute power, with serving users likely consuming the majority of their infrastructure. Several members of the Qwen research team, including Lin, have reported facing challenges due to these constraints.

The future of knowledge and intelligence is closely tied to the advancements in AI and computing power. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, the ability to process and analyze vast amounts of data has become a critical factor in shaping industries, economies, and societies. The concentration of AI production, however, also raises concerns about the potential for monopolies and the unequal distribution of technological advancements.

In addition to the focus on AI and computing, the article also touches upon the importance of addressing climate change and the role of CO2 armor in mitigating its effects. The concept of "ultra-violent ancestors" serves as a metaphor for the challenges faced by modern societies in adapting to rapid technological and environmental changes.

As we look towards the future, the interplay between AI, productivity, and the economy will continue to shape our world. The geopolitical landscape is evolving, with nations and corporations vying for control over the AI supply chain. Meanwhile, the need to address climate change and adapt to the challenges posed by rapid technological advancements remains a pressing concern.

In conclusion, Exponential View #564 offers a comprehensive analysis of the current trends and challenges in the realm of intelligence, knowledge, and technology. From the concentration of AI production to the geopolitical implications of controlling the supply chain, the article highlights the complexities of navigating this rapidly changing world. As we move forward, it is crucial to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing the opportunities and threats posed by the convergence of AI, productivity, and the economy.