China returns as S-E Asia’s preferred superpower as fears grow over Trump’s policies: ISEAS survey

In a recent survey conducted by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), China has emerged as the preferred superpower for alignment among ASEAN opinion-makers and thought leaders, with 52 percent of respondents opting for a closer relationship with Beijing. This development marks a significant shift in regional dynamics, as it highlights the growing influence of China in Southeast Asia and underscores the concerns that many regional leaders have about the policies of the outgoing Trump administration.

The survey, which polled a diverse group of experts, academics, and policymakers across ASEAN countries, revealed a clear preference for China as a strategic partner. This outcome is noteworthy given the historical context of the region, where the United States has traditionally been seen as the dominant power. However, the survey results indicate that the balance of power in Southeast Asia is shifting, with China's economic might and regional investments playing a crucial role in shaping perceptions among key opinion-makers.

One of the primary factors driving this preference is China's substantial economic contributions to the region. Over the past few decades, China has invested heavily in infrastructure projects, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, which has provided significant economic benefits to ASEAN countries. These investments have not only spurred economic growth but have also created jobs and fostered regional connectivity, making China a valuable partner for many ASEAN nations.

Moreover, China's proactive diplomatic efforts have contributed to its growing influence in the region. Beijing has been actively engaging with ASEAN countries through various forums, such as the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) and the China-ASEAN Strategic Cooperation Framework. These initiatives have helped to build trust and strengthen ties between China and ASEAN, further solidifying China's position as a preferred partner.

However, the survey also highlights growing concerns over the policies of the outgoing Trump administration, which have contributed to the shift in regional preferences. The Trump administration's "America First" policy, characterized by protectionism and a more assertive stance in international affairs, has been met with apprehension by many ASEAN leaders. They view China as a more predictable and stable partner, despite occasional tensions over territorial disputes and human rights issues.

The survey results also reflect a broader trend of ASEAN countries seeking to diversify their strategic partnerships in the face of geopolitical uncertainties. With the United States' focus shifting to domestic issues and global challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic, ASEAN nations are looking to China as a reliable partner to support their economic development and regional stability.

Despite the growing alignment with China, the survey also highlights the need for ASEAN countries to maintain a balanced approach in their foreign policy. The respondents emphasized the importance of preserving regional harmony and avoiding a unilateral shift towards any single power. They acknowledged that while China offers significant economic opportunities, it is crucial for ASEAN countries to engage with other regional and global partners as well.

In conclusion, the ISEAS survey reveals a clear preference among ASEAN opinion-makers for aligning with China, driven by its economic contributions and diplomatic efforts. This development underscores the changing dynamics in Southeast Asia and the growing concerns over the policies of the outgoing Trump administration. As ASEAN countries navigate these complexities, the survey emphasizes the need for a balanced and multifaceted foreign policy approach to ensure regional stability and prosperity.