Airtel, Jio to Grow at Expense of Vodafone Idea: Report

Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio, the dominant players in India's telecom sector, are set to expand their market share at the expense of Vodafone Idea (Vi) during the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2026 (Q4 FY26). This trend has been observed for an extended period, and it is anticipated to persist, driven by a combination of factors including rising average revenue per user (ARPU) and strong subscriber additions by the leading telecom companies.

The overall telecom sector in India is expected to witness steady growth in Q4 FY26. This growth will be supported by the increasing ARPU, which is projected to rise by 1% on a quarter-on-quarter (Q0Q) basis. The primary drivers behind this growth are the migration from 2G to 4G/5G networks and the expansion of postpaid services. Both Airtel and Jio are capitalizing on this shift, thereby enhancing their market presence.

Jio, a subsidiary of Reliance Industries, is predicted to add approximately 5 million new customers during Q4 FY26. Similarly, Bharti Airtel is expected to secure around 6.5 million new users, further solidifying its position as a market leader. In contrast, Vodafone Idea is anticipated to lose around 1 million customers on a quarter-on-quarter basis. This decline is attributed to the competitive landscape and the inability of Vodafone Idea to keep pace with the rapid advancements in the telecom sector.

The growth in data consumption is expected to be another significant factor driving the telecom sector's expansion in Q4 FY26. This surge in data usage will be fueled by the growing penetration of 4G/5G networks. Both Airtel and Jio are actively expanding their 5G footprint across 90% of the districts in India, thereby enhancing their network capabilities and customer appeal.

In addition to these developments, there are expectations of another round of tariff hikes, scheduled for July 2026. The anticipated increase in telecom tariffs is estimated to be between 12-15%. This move is likely to further influence customer preferences and drive them towards the leading telecom providers, such as Airtel and Jio, which are better positioned to offer competitive pricing and superior network services.

In conclusion, the telecom sector in India is poised for growth in Q4 FY26, with Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio set to benefit significantly from the ongoing shift towards 4G/5G networks and postpaid services. Vodafone Idea, however, faces challenges in maintaining its market share, as it struggles to keep up with the rapid advancements and competitive pressures in the sector. As the telecom landscape continues to evolve, customers are likely to gravitate towards the leading providers, who are better equipped to deliver innovative solutions and superior network performance.